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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

OPEC's Moves Shrouded in Mystery

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet today June 8 in Vienna to talk about increasing oil production. Preliminary news reports are hinting at Kuwait and Saudi Arabia pushing for a 1.5 million barrels per day increase in production to cool off oil prices. West Texas Intermediate oil is currently a little below $100 a barrel, but most other blends are above $100 per barrel. Iran, Venezuela, and Iraq oppose the increase.




The increase appears to be based on an attempt by OPEC to re-balance supply with demand for OPEC crude. The latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May 2011) (PDF) indicates that demand for OPEC crude oil will average 29.9 million b/d in 2011. An increase in production by 1.5 million b/d would raise production from April's 28.8 to 30.3 million barrels per day,assuming that the statements made by OPEC are about production increases, and not about rising the quota level - something that is not at all clear.

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