When will China’s government banks need a bailout so the economists that have been forecasting this for years will finally be right? When will China’s housing market finally collapse? The answer is, nobody knows because China is a closed economy and will not tell the market anything it doesn’t want the market to know.
For every article about non-performing loans, there is another quoting a government officials saying they’d pay the bills themselves if the debt become toxic. For every article about the housing market looking like it’s heading the way of Las Vegas real estate, there is a string of data from China showing that housing prices are still higher than they were a year ago. There is no free fall in China. There is no crash. But everyone is wondering if China is the next EU. The den of China bears has roared back to life this week after being quiet for a few weeks.